Given that climate change is happening now many nation-states, communities, networks and corporations are rushing or perhaps for a lack of a better word swarming to innovate with the hope that this generation could alter many of the world’s climate scientists worst case predictions and secure a better future for this generation and the next.
The enormity and scale of multiple climate change impacts could match any futurists’ version or any artists’ portrayal of a dark, dismal, ridiculous and dystopic alternative future world. An extreme cold snap and blizzard all over South East Asia, 60C or perhaps a sudden drop in temperatures at 10C over the city of Laoag and a recurring weekend typhoons in Ilocos Norte, local pandemics and more in the future could hit world news headlines. Recent records show that global temperature anomalies had been more frequent in the last five years. February just smashed a century of global temperature records by a staggering margin as our planet suddenly became warmer by 1.35C according to a data NASA released. The world’s leading climate scientists would label this new record as “shocker” and warns of a “climate emergency” reported the Guardian. “We are now hurtling at a frightening pace toward the globally agreed maximum of 2C warming over pre-industrial levels” said climate scientists Masters and Henson. The Climate Summit in Paris two months ago confirmed 2C as the danger limit for global warming which should not be breached.
Last year, the heat index in the city of Bandar Mahshar in Iran were literally off the charts. Factoring in humidity, the astronomical heat index was 165 degrees or a whooping double whammy of an oppressive 74C (imagine that!). This outlier resulted to droughts, chronic water and electricity cuts and spike in energy and food cost and travel restrictions.
Just try to imagine if this happens in Laoag and Ilocos Norte.
Extreme El Niño and droughts according to the latest UN Climate Research could last from 12 to 18 months. Prolonged dry periods may significantly and negatively impact agriculture, water and food supply. It could exacerbate incidence of urban fires and may create huge forest fires as well. Also, the link between El Niño and disease is so apparent that the cycle of epidemic types of diseases occurs in parallel with extreme weather patterns. The 2016 World Health Organizations research on climate change and diseases concluded that extreme drought could turn rivers into strings of pools and breeding sites for different, emerging and hybrid types of mosquitoes. Mosquitoes are adaptable insects and now are capable of transmitting virus and viral diseases.
To mitigate and adapt or perhaps transform in a climate change era, Laoag City like any other vulnerable cities in the Philippines should use foresight, prepare, invest and act to diminish the causes of climate change and protect Ilocanos from its impacts. Laoag Mayor Chevylle V. Fariñas may initiate the creation of a climate change city resiliency committee with the best, the most knowledgeable, passionate, experienced and capable community members as advocates. This committee acting as an advisory and action body of the good mayor—as volunteers—can help explore the most visible and unknown city climate driven risks and find ways to manage and mitigate their impacts. The committee may act as a think-do-act tank to support and expand her environment and resiliency initiatives. With Ms. Fariñas’ wit and will, she could devise multiple spaces and avenues for meaningful conversation to increase Laoagueños awareness, capacity and local climate change engagements. Through crowdsourcing and crowdfunding, they could generate and translate imaginative conversations and ideas into climate change mitigation and adaptation actions like reframing or refining climate change ordinances, resolutions, executive orders, projects, events, initiatives among others. 24/7 Agserbi could evolve and should make climate change and resiliency the core of the mayor’s community and city-futures based initiatives. Filipinos risk perception and climate change awareness and engagements are apparently low according to Nobel Peace Prize recipient Al Gore.
Laoag City and Ilocos Norte needs to deepen its engagements beyond the business as usual. The evil impacts of climate change represent unimaginable risk and it could offset the gains we’ve attained in the last six years. We need to formulate transformative plans to respond to the threats and seize the opportunities.
(Shermon Cruz works as a Climate Reality Leader at Climate Reality Project Philippines, a business continuity management planner and a professional futurist at the Center for Engaged Foresight (CEF), a futures and strategic foresight innovation hub in the Philippines and the Asia Pacific. For more about his works and engagements, check www.engagedforesight.com or you may email him at engageforesight@gmail.com.)